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Minnesota labor force projections: 2000 - 2030
Extent: 23p, 2.3MB, PDF 5.0
Minnesota’s labor force is expected to grow at about the same rate this decade as in the 1990s
Date: February 25, 2003
Subject(s): Demography; Labor supply; Population forecasting
Creator(s): Minnesota Planning (Agency). Office of the State Demographer
Publisher: Minnesota Planning (Agency).
Minnesota’s labor force is projected to grow from 2,691,709 in 2000 to 3,312,800 in 2010, a gain of 16 percent. By 2030 the labor force is expected to reach 3,385,000, a gain of 26 percent over 30 years. The growth of the labor force stems from a combination of population increases and higher rates of labor force participation.
The labor force will become older as the baby boom generation ages. Between 2000 and 2010, more than three-fourths of the gain in labor force will occur in the 45- to- 64-year-old age group. The 25- to- 44-year-old work force is expected to decline slightly, while modest growth is anticipated in the under-25 and over-64 age groups.
After 2015, as members of the boom generation pass their 65th birthdays, there will be a huge increase in the elderly work force. The 65 and older labor force is projected to more than triple between 2000 and 2030. Over the next 30 years, the number of added workers 65 and older will be about the same as the number of new workers age 16 to 44.
Fastest labor force growth will be in suburban and lakes areas
Labor force growth is driven by population trends. The greatest gains in the labor force are expected in areas with the fastest population growth. Between 2000 and 2010, the fastest labor force growth is projected for Carver and Scott (43 percent) and Sherburne (41 percent) counties. These counties are also anticipated to have the greatest gains in labor force over a 30-year period. Several counties in western Minnesota are projected to experience declines in the size of their labor force, and as the decades pass by, more counties will shift into the loss column.
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